AS 2023 dawns, Bihar seems to be inching towards bipolar politics, with the last of its titans, Nitish Kumar, hinting at exiting the state arena, leaving the space wide open for Tejashwi Yadav-led RJD on one side and the BJP on the other.
A probable Nitish move to the national stage will have repercussions both for the 2024 Lok Sabha and the 2025 Assembly polls in Bihar, even as the young Tejashwi finds himself thrust into a do-or-die situation against an unforgiving BJP, that he probably didn’t bargain on facing so quickly.
But will this year finally be when the grand ambitions of Nitish — who has spent a long time in the wings — finally come true? Having ruled himself out of the Bihar CM race in his own roundabout way, the JD(U) chief has dipped his toes into a pool that has many vying to be the main Opposition face in 2024.
In a bid to boost his case, Nitish has been meeting Opposition leaders, which he is going to continue, with Odisha CM Naveen Patnaik up next. So far, “Mission Nitish 2024”, as the JD(U) calls it, has not really made much headway.
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The biggest obstacle in this of course is the Congress, with Rahul Gandhi once again saying on Saturday that the party has to be central to any joint-Opposition framework. Nitish has tried to feign indifference to the Congress’s claims, even to Rahul’s ambitious Bharat Jodo Yatra, and that would not have gone unnoticed by the party which is a JD(U) partner in Bihar.
As per some, when — and if — Nitish does make the formal leap nationally, he would merge his JD(U) with the RJD. Number-wise, this would add heft to Nitish’s case as a national leader, at a time when the JD(U) has lost ground to the RJD and BJP in Bihar. If the Mahagathbandhan gets, say, 25 of the 40 Lok Sabha seats in Bihar in 2024, Nitish would remain a man to watch.
However, both the JD(U) and RJD would inch only cagily towards a merger, as they remain doubtful of their divergent vote banks gelling together seamlessly.
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Anyway, with or without a merger, the era of Bihar politics with three poles since 2005 – of Nitish, Lalu-Tejashwi and the BJP – is over.
The smaller, caste-based parties are likely to hitch their wagons to either of the two fronts. Chirag Paswan has left no doubts about his eagerness to be accepted by the BJP, and could patch up with his uncle and Union minister Pashupati Kumar Paras, who is already with the BJP, for this. The BJP might be willing as it needs to fill up some caste gaps due to Nitish’s exit. EBC Mallah leader Mukesh Sahani too might find the BJP a better bet given the crowded space in the seven-member Mahagathbandhan.
Other caste leaders such as JD(U)-turned-BJP-turned-JD(U) leader Upendra Kushwaha are also weighing their options. Kushwaha especially sees his road blocked with Nitish projecting Tejashwi. The BJP will have in Kushwaha a leader to rival Nitish in his core Koeri-Kurmi constituency.
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Another Nitish loyalist turned detractor, R C P Singh, is also most likely to align with the BJP sooner rather than later.
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December 31, 2022 at 08:14PM
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As Nitish prepares state exit, after 18 yrs, Bihar stares at a bipolar arena - The Indian Express
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