Meteorological spring begins on March 1. This is because we keep records for each season starting at the beginning of seasonal months, because the first day of astronomical spring, summer, fall and winter will change year-to-year. To make our data exact and the same year-to-year, we start at the beginning of these months. Therefore, meteorological spring begins March 1, summer on June 1, etc.
Meteorological winter is now behind us, and the data will show up in the record books as normal. This winter was 0.4º below average.
Yes, this winter will go in the books as a seasonal winter.
But... was it really?
DECEMBER
December was warm, nearly 5º above average. December 10th tied a record high temperature.
It was also very dry, with less than an inch of total rainfall and no snow accumulation.
The coldest stretch of the month was on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.
JANUARY
January was warm, too. In fact, it was the 28th warmest in the past 131 years of records.
What was especially interesting was how exceptionally warm the nights were. We simply didn't cool off much and therefore our average low temps were nearly 7º above average. It was a top 10 warmest for nights alone.
Rain kicked back in to start the new year. January saw 3.24" of rainfall, making it the 17th rainiest on record.
Snow was fairly seasonal with just over 5" falling for the month.
The coldest time of the year, on average, occurs in January. It keeps getting warmer.
FEBRUARY
So far, winter had been mild city. We were warm with a bit of snow. Over the 62 days thus far, only 7 had been below average, that's only 11% of the first two months of winter.
With one month and 28 days still to go, winter made a major comeback thanks to warmer weather over the arctic.
As Siberia had a big warming of the air overhead, in the stratosphere, following continued record heat waves plaguing the region for years, it caused a common outcome: a weakening of our jet stream and a break in the polar vortex. This break of cold arctic air was pushed south into the U.S. and created tens of billions of dollars in damage, not to mention human death.
We had two weeks of extreme winter weather for a large chunk of the United States.
Here in central Missouri the temperature over those two weeks, from February 6-19, averaged 9.4º. That's 24.2º below average! Three cold records were broken, two of which were demolished.
The last time we were colder was 32 years ago in 1989. This year is the only year from the 21st century in the top 10 coldest.
Due to this cold air and this weather pattern, we saw multiple waves of energy which allowed for snowfall. In total, 8.1" fell in Columbia, ending the month 3.4" above average.
Rainfall, on the other hand, was lacking. February saw 1.04" of liquid moisture, over an inch below average. Snowfall will counter this a bit and we are not in a drought.
WHAT IF?
What if we hadn't had the extreme cold? What if those 14 days were seasonal?
The month would have been 5.3º above average.
WINTER RECAP
So, how will this all look when combined into one single winter season? Normal.
Compared to average, here is how each month shaped up:
DECEMBER: 4.8º above average
JANURAY: 4.3º above average
FEBRUARY: 10.5º below average
That means WINTER 2020-2021: 0.4º below average
Even more fascinating, in my opinion, is that only 24% of this winter season was below average, even though the record books will show this winter was 0.4º below average. Also remember that half of this winter season was above average! That's how extremely cold those two weeks in February really were.
WHAT IF?
If those two weeks in February hadn't seen an extreme winter weather pattern, this past winter season would have ended over 4º above average.
Turns out it only takes 14 days of extreme weather stemming from abnormal heating over Siberia to create a big mess.
CLIMATE CHANGE
Does any of this have to do with our rapidly changing climate due to human activity?
Here's what we know...
Climate change does NOT cancel winter. Winter still exists even though our world is warming.
Winters are, however, getting warmer. Winter is the fastest warming season for the majority of the United States.
We will also get extreme weather patterns in winter, just like in other seasons.
One of the biggest changes to our weather patterns due to climate change are their extremes happen more often. When it rains, it pours and floods more often, when it is dry we enter a severe drought more frequently, when it is hot it is hotter, when it is cold it is colder. Mild, lazy weather isn't happening as often, and extremes are happening more frequently, all in our warming world.
So, this winter was warmer than average and saw an extreme winter weather event due to excessive warming in a different part of the world.
Do you think this winter was as "normal" as the overall seasonal difference of -0.4º shows?
Or, perhaps, was this winter a new normal?
For more SHOW ME CLIMATE visit komu.com/climate.
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March 01, 2021 at 11:30AM
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Winter 2020-2021 will go in the books as "normal," but was it really? - KOMU 8
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