Pittsburgh Pirates shortstop Oneil Cruz did it again Monday night. Another laser of a home run.
This time, 118 miles per hour during a 5-3 loss in Milwaukee.
Impressive.
HOW 'BOUT A CRUZ MISSILE?! pic.twitter.com/AGQ8sVg3zb
— Pittsburgh Pirates (@Pirates) August 30, 2022
You know what might be more impressive? His game Tuesday night as part of the Pirates’ 4-2 win over the Brewers.
Cruz didn’t have any homers that will “break Statcast” or trend on Twitter. But he did have an RBI single, a walk and a clutch RBI double (on a 2-2 count) to left center field on a pitch up and slightly away, providing an insurance run in the ninth inning.
Cruz is a rare Pirates prospect who gives this fanbase something to get excited about. A talented physical specimen with enough raw potential that he may someday become a Major League Baseball superstar.
Someday.
When he figures out better command of the strike zone and isn’t hitting .206 with a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 85:16 and an on-base percentage of .261.
As his at-bats Tuesday started to show, those things will (and should) come into focus when he has more Major League seasoning.
But those are the numbers that few who follow the Pirates seem willing to discuss in the same depth that they do the exit velocity with which Cruz hits the ball — when he does make contact.
The only things that seem to move faster than Cruz’s home runs (or singles) are the gushy, fawning tweets from the fingers of those who are all too willing to promote anything Cruz does well but don’t appear to want any part of the discussion of his struggles.
That push-pull always seems to come back to the topic of exit velocity.
In one camp, there are those who can’t wait to attach increased importance to any hit Cruz gets based on how hard he hits it. In the other, are those who see exit velocity as a measurement that’s being used to hype up Cruz’s good moments so there’s more to talk about instead of all the times he strikes out.
Consider me in the second camp.
But, contrary to what Twitter will tell you, that doesn’t mean I’m some sort of old school dinosaur who is yelling at clouds about “these darn kids and their technology today.” I don’t need to be dragged into the 21st century to appreciate hitting stats beyond batting average, homers and RBIs.
I get why the exit velocity stat is important. Important beyond the curiosity of “Hey, isn’t it cool how hard that guy hit that pitch!!??”
It’s a predictive measure. The goal is to hit the ball hard every swing. A player who hits the ball hard consistently is far more likely to reach base when he puts the ball in play than someone who isn’t.
Not complex.
So, yeah. Exit velocity and many similar Statcast measurements are useful tools. How they are applied is where I often take issue.
Because with Cruz and other young power hitters, we get mesmerized by how hard they hit the ball when they do make contact. But in their quest to do so, how often are they over-swinging and striking out instead of cutting back on a difficult pitch and trying to hit a single the other way? Or sending a pitch back up the middle as opposed to turning on it and trying to jack a homer to the pull side or into the alley at 122 miles per hour?
I mean, look at that double in the ninth from Cruz. It was still struck at 112 mph. He’s huge. When Cruz hits something, it’s going to come off the bat with some zip. How he got to that pitch, up in the zone, with two strikes, in that situation was much more impressive than how hard he hit it.
Going nuts over Cruz hitting a ball 100+ mph, is like saying “Wow, did you see Shaq dunk??!!” It’s what he does. It’s how he’s built.
According to Baseball Savant, at the start of play Tuesday night, Cruz’s average exit velocity this year is 91.6 mph. That’d be good for 15th among MLB qualified hitters this season.
However, among hitters with at least 200 plate appearances, his whiff percentage of 37.7% is sixth in MLB, his out-of-zone swing-and-miss percentage of 56.1 is 18th, and his strikeout percentage of 37.6 is third.
All I’m asking is to stop harping on these NFL combine-type stats to the point that we are talking around the complexities of what it’s going to take for Cruz to become a successful MLB hitter.
Which means taking games like last night and making them the standard more than the exception.
Pimping Cruz’s exit velocity non-stop is like drooling over the 6-foot-4 NFL wide receiver who runs a low 4.3-second 40-yard dash but can’t run a route and drops too many passes. Except baseball is such a stat-happy sport, we can take any granular predictive measure and treat it as if it is a far more tangible reflection of success.
This isn’t about “hating fun” or “raining on a parade.” It’s trying to get a grip on what the numbers are really saying — and if they matter, why they matter.
Or, specifically in the case of Cruz, why this one specific number shouldn’t matter as much as we are insisting that it does. And why plate appearances like the ones he had Tuesday night should matter more.
Tim Benz is a Tribune-Review staff writer. You can contact Tim at tbenz@triblive.com or via Twitter. All tweets could be reposted. All emails are subject to publication unless specified otherwise.
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