To the many things that distinguish this Democratic primary for mayor from the last, add one more: There is likely to be no public exit polling.
Larry Rosin, president of Edison Research, the main player in the exit polling world, confirmed as much Tuesday afternoon. He said his firm would conduct no public exit polls but was conducting a private one for a client he declined to name.
Exit polling refers to the practice of surveying voters as they leave polling sites.
Mr. Rosin said it was unlikely that any other polling outfit would conduct an exit poll.
“If we aren’t doing it, it’s probably no one doing it,” Mr. Rosin said. “It’s a very arcane little corner of the research world and not many people hang out in this arcane little corner.”
Such polls tend to provide a wealth of early data.
By 11:30 p.m. on primary night in 2013, the last time there was no incumbent mayor, Edison Research was able to share data on which candidates voters chose, based on race, ethnicity, age, education and religion.
Exit polls are often commissioned by media outlets, including The New York Times. But this year, none of the usual suspects agreed to pay for exit polling, which is expensive and, in an election complicated by the new ranked-choice voting system, of questionable accuracy.
There has been an absence of credible polling throughout this primary campaign. Mr. Rosin suggested that ranked-choice voting was a factor there, too.
“It’s hard enough to project a winner of an upcoming election when it’s just first past the post,” he said.
Stu Loeser, a campaign consultant for the candidate Raymond J. McGuire, a former Citigroup executive, said exit polls “provide answers about what issues voters care about the most” and can be useful for future campaigns.
“But like any polling, it’s imperfect,” he added, particularly on rainy days like this one. “Exit polls are less effective in the rain. You’re asking people outside of polling places to stop and get rained on.”
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June 22, 2021 at 07:59PM
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Lack of Exit Polls in NYC Mayoral Race Makes it Hard To Figure Out Who's Ahead - The New York Times
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