The BJP is tipped to retain Tripura, return to power in Nagaland with coalition partner National Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP) and marginally improve its tally in Meghalaya, while the Congress, which once dominated the Northeast, is headed for a wipeout in the three states, according to exit polls.
An aggregate of the four exit polls whose results started trickling in on Monday evening, soon after voting had finished in Meghalaya and Nagaland – Tripura voted on February 16 — indicates that the BJP, which bagged 36 seats in Tripura in 2018, may scrape past the halfway mark, winning 32 seats in the 60-member Assembly.
The TIPRA Motha, led by royal scion Pradyot Debbarma, which was believed widely to be the kingmaker of this election, is predicted to get 13 seats. The Left, which fought for the first time in an “arrangement” with the Congress in the state, may have to contend with just 15 seats.
While Axis My India polls, telecast by India Today channel, predicted a huge majority for the ruling BJP-IPFT coalition in Tripura, with 36-45 seats, ETG Research-Times Now was more conservative, giving 21-27 seats to the combination.
The results in Tripura hold huge significance for the BJP. In ending the Left Front’s uninterrupted run since 1993 in 2018, the BJP had made a major push for the expansion of its ideological frontiers in a state where it had a negligible presence till then.
In Meghalaya, going by the exit polls, no party is predicted to cross the halfway mark in the 60-member Assembly. The ruling National People’s Party (NPP), as per the aggregate of the four exit polls, may end up with 20 seats. The BJP, an NPP ally in power but which fought the elections separately, may increase its tally from 2 to 6.
The Trinamool Congress, which had overnight become the principal Opposition in the state after 12 Congress MLAs defected to it in November 2021, could win up to 11 seats, going by the average of the exit polls.
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The battle this time was essentially seen as a Conrad Sangma (NPP) vs Mukul Sangma (TMC) contest. And the exit polls seem to hold that up, giving the Congress, which was the single largest party in 2018 with 21 seats, 6 seats this time.
Nagaland is one state where the NDPP-BJP coalition looks poised to return with a comfortable majority of 42 seats in the 60-member House. Given the state of the Opposition in Nagaland, the ruling coalition was far ahead of the race, and the exit polls seem to be on the same line, giving the Congress just 1 seat and the NPF (a formerly formidable force) 6 seats.
As part of the coalition, the BJP contested 20 seats, while the NDPP fielded candidates in 40.
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Hoping to claw back in Tripura with their once-unthinkable arrangement, the Left and Congress Monday downplayed the exit polls, pointing out these have been way off the mark in the past.
CPI(M) state secretary Jitendra Chaudhury, one of the leading contenders for chief minister if the Left-Congress tie-up wins, said, “Our exit poll is based on peoples’ reaction, the pulse of the people and their determination, and the fact that they turned up for voting against all odds. It is the victory of the people and we believe it has gone against the BJP. Whatever the exit poll predictions, these will fail when the results come out.”
Tripura had registered 87.6% voter turnout.
State BJP spokesperson Nabendu Bhattacharya said, “Many a times exit polls are correct, sometimes they are not done correctly. Many organisations are doing these. We don’t have any comments to offer on this. We believe our tally will be higher than the predictions made in these exit polls.”
Meghalaya Chief Minister Conrad Sangma told reporters that the NPP will take into consideration the “best interests” of the state while forming a government, indicating that a hung Assembly would not come as a surprise to him, and that he was not closing any doors to a post-poll tie-up.
“We are quite happy to see that the trend is in line with what we expected, and we are going to get more seats compared to last time. When it comes to forming a government, we will take into consideration what is in the best interest of the state to provide a stable government when the situation emerges,” Sangma said.
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Nalin Kohli, the Nagaland BJP in-charge, said the exit polls showing a landslide victory for the NDPP-BJP alliance were in line with the party’s expectations, given “the developmental agenda of Prime Minister Modi, the Act East Policy which brings focus to the North East, and the good work done by Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio’s government in implementing those schemes. We were expecting a repeat of the double engine government.”
— with ENS inputs from Guwahati, Agartala
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February 28, 2023 at 12:12AM
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Exit polls show BJP set to come back in Tripura and Nagaland - The Indian Express
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