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First-round exit or NBA Finals? Warriors' fate hinges on these 7 factors - San Francisco Chronicle

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For the Warriors, anything is possible.

The moon? Absolutely. Nobody wants any part of this team with everyone healthy.

The dumpster? You bet. Have you seen the Warriors lately? Nobody has. They were so ghastly Monday in Memphis that even their head coach left early to beat the traffic.

Little more than two weeks before the playoffs, the Warriors are the NBA’s mystery team — medically and emotionally.

Based on their play earlier in the season, the Warriors have more upside than any team except the Suns. Based on what we’ve seen lately, the Warriors have a downside that surprises even the skeptics who doubted them from the start.

Has there ever been a team that went into the playoffs with three (possibly four) future Hall of Famers at or near their primes, yet facing the distinct possibility of being embarrassed and bounced in the first round?

During the Warriors’ five-year run of Finals appearances, they knew pretty much where they stood at this point in the season, and it was on solid ground. Now they’re standing on sand during an earthquake.

Even last year, as the playoffs approached, the Warriors knew what they were: a scrappy team with an outside chance to have some first-round fun.

This time: Mystery Theater.

In reverse order, here are one observer’s seven biggest question marks:

Andrew Wiggins

The quintessential player for Team Mood Swing. It seems like so long ago that Wiggins played his way into starting on the All-Star team, fully legit. He was a new man. Now, he’s playing old.

With the Warriors already overmatched nightly at center, they can’t afford another weakish link. They will require from Wiggins not only offensive aggression, but also high-level defense, especially with Klay Thompson and Draymond Green defending below par.

Outlook: Good. Wiggins realizes these playoffs could be his career-defining moment, as well as his chance to achieve the status of Warriors’ mainstay.

Jonathan Kuminga

The rookie forward’s progress has been surprising, almost shocking, but is the teenager ready for the postseason?

It’s not just Warriors fans and local media who are impressed with Kuminga. National observers, like the network TV folks, have been dazzled.

The older Warriors have been pounding wisdom into Kuminga’s head. How much of it can he put to use in his first exposure to playoff basketball? We’re about to find out.

Six months ago, the Warriors didn’t expect to be counting on Kuminga in the playoffs. Now they are.

Outlook: Very good. He won’t become a polished pro in two weeks, but Kuminga is a bright student with growing confidence and a good sense of how to play basketball.

Andre Iguodala

The plan all along was to ease Ol’ Scrap Iron through the regular season so he’d be healthy and ready to rip in Iggy Time: the playoffs. Well, he’s certainly gotten the rest — most of 2021-22. He’s played in just 27 of the Warriors’ 76 games.

The Warriors need him to steady the offense and pick up some of the aforementioned slack on defense, especially against opponents’ big men, who figure to wear down the smaller Warriors.

Outlook: Grim. His knee, hip and back must find a way to align, like stars in a perfect horoscope. Mother Nature can be a mother.

Jordan Poole

In the playoffs, can he adjust to his ever-shifting role and maintain what has been the biggest surprise, his poise under pressure? Because Poole will have to be a go-to scorer.

Outook: Excellent. Signs point to this being Poole’s big moment.

Klay Thompson

Nobody will ever doubt Thompson’s desire, but that might not be enough.

His jumper seems close, it’s easy to see him getting 20 points per game, but he’s not the same on defense. If Thompson can’t guard big scorers, the Warriors are in trouble.

Outlook: Not good. After all that time on the shelf, two more weeks probably isn’t enough time to get back to 95%. But if there’s any player capable of Dig Deeper, it’s this one.

Draymond Green

Since returning from his back-injury layoff, he has been the team’s — and maybe the league’s — MDP, or Most Disappointing Player. That’s according to the league’s foremost expert on that subject: Draymond Green.

The Warriors’ need last season’s Green. Down the stretch, he was a mighty force, a triple-double threat every night. That seems 10 years ago.

Outlook: Bleak. Green is famous for whipping himself into shape before the playoffs, but cranky spines have a way of sapping the fiercest of wills.

Stephen Curry

To see what a healthy Curry can do for a less than perfect team, cast your memory back one year, when the Warriors didn’t have Thompson, Iguodala or Kuminga.

In the final three games, including the two play-in games, Curry, with a sore tailbone and defenses collapsing on him like a cheap tent, scored 46, 37 and 39 points.

Outlook: Murky. There is a chance that injured foot will hold up to the demands placed on it by its boss. Fortunately, Curry doesn’t do much cutting or sprinting. He does? Oh.

Scott Ostler is a columnist for The San Francisco Chronicle. Email: sostler@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @scottostler

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