At long last, the World Baseball Classic is back. The WBC returns this week following a two-year delay made necessary by the COVID pandemic. This is the fifth installment of the WBC and the first since USA defeated Puerto Rico to win the 2017 event. Japan (2006 and 2009) and the Dominican Republic (2013) won the first three tournaments.
"I'm extremely excited and very humbled to wear that USA across my chest," Mike Trout, USA's captain and a WBC first-timer, told MLB.com last month. "Any time you do have that USA across your chest, it means a lot."
The WBC has expanded from 16 teams to 20 teams this year and the games begin Tuesday night (technically Wednesday morning) in Taiwan. Here is the full WBC schedule and here is everything you need to know about this year's tournament. Here's a Team USA-centric breakdown for the more patriotic among us. These are the first-round pools:
| Pool A | Pool B | Pool C | Pool D | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Dates |
March 7-13 |
March 9-13 |
March 11-15 |
March 11-15 |
|
Location |
Taichung, Taiwan |
Tokyo, Japan |
Phoenix, Arizona |
Miami, Florida |
|
Teams |
Chinese Taipei |
Australia |
Canada |
Dominican Republic |
|
Cuba |
China |
Colombia |
Israel |
|
|
Italy |
Japan |
Mexico |
Puerto Rico |
|
|
Netherlands |
Korea |
USA |
Venezuela |
|
|
Panama |
Czech Republic |
Great Britain |
Nicaragua |
In the first round, each team will play one game against every other team in its pool. The teams with the two best records in each pool advance to the second round. From there, it's a standard eight-team single-elimination tournament. The WBC Championship Game will be played March 21 in Miami and will pit a team from Pool A or B against a team from Pool C or Pool D.
Now that the minutiae is out of the way, how about we make some bold predictions for this year's WBC? Here are five prophecies you can take to the bank.
1. Lee will hit for the cycle
There has already been a no-hitter in the WBC. Former Nationals and Twins pitcher Shairon Martis, then only 18, threw a no-hitter against a Panama team that featured All-Star Carlos Lee in 2006. It was a seven-inning game because of the mercy rule (the Netherlands won 10-0) and Martis was up against the WBC's pitch limit when he got a game-ending double play to finish the no-no.
Now 35, Martis will again suit up for the Netherlands this WBC. He will join longtime big leaguers Miguel Cabrera and Oliver Pérez as the only players to play in both the 2006 and 2023 WBCs (Cabrera and Pérez have played in every WBC, but Martis missed the 2009 tournament because the Nationals denied him permission to play).
Anyway, we've already seen a WBC no-hitter. There has never been a WBC cycle, however, and my first bold prediction calls for the drought to end this year. The player: Korean outfielder Jung-hoo Lee, one of the very best players in the world outside MLB. Here's what our R.J. Anderson wrote about Lee recently:
(His boosters) envision him becoming a starting center fielder in MLB. Lee homered more times last season (23) than he had the previous two years combined (22), but his above-average contact chops are the safest component of his lefty bat. He's regarded as a plus runner and defender, a combination that should earn him a wider berth at the plate than the average bear.
Lee, 24, slashed .349/.421/.575 with 36 doubles, 10 triples, 23 homers, and more than twice as many walks (66) as strikeouts (32) for the Kiwoom Heroes in 2022. He has the power/speed skill set conducive to hitting for the cycle. Think peak Christian Yelich, who has hit for the cycle an MLB record-tying three times in his career.
That's my first bold prediction: Lee hits for the first ever WBC cycle. To be a bit more specific, Lee will do it in a second-round game against Martis and the Netherlands, so the sub-bold prediction is both Korea and the Netherlands advance out of pool play.
2. Nicaragua will upset Venezuela
There are upsets in the WBC every year. Well, no, not every year. Every time it is played, I should say. Canada upset USA in 2006. The Netherlands upset the Dominican Republic (twice) in 2009. Puerto Rico upset Japan in 2013 and the Dominican Republic in 2017. It's baseball and in one single game, anything can happen. Upsets come with the territory.
I feel obligated to include an upset in my bold predictions, and I'm going with Nicaragua over Venezuela in the first round. The two teams will meet March 14 in Miami. Venezuela is a baseball powerhouse with an All Star-laden roster that includes Jose Altuve, Ronald Acuña Jr., Emmanuel Clase, Salvador Perez, Eugenio Suàrez, Gleyber Torres, and many other big names.
Nicaragua had to win a qualifying tournament last fall just to earn a spot in this year's WBC. They outlasted Argentina, Brazil, New Zealand, and Pakistan in the qualifier. Nicaragua's best player is Yankees reliever Jonathan Loàisiga. Other familiar names include journeymen Cheslor Cuthbert and Erasmo Ramírez. On paper, Nicaragua vs. Venezuela is lopsided, hence the upset prediction.
I'll say former Reds first round pick Alex Blandino provides a clutch three-run homer in the middle innings and Loàisiga slams the door in the ninth to finish the upset. It has been foretold.
3. Harvey will pitch his way to an MLB contract
It wasn't that long ago that the phrase "Matt Harvey, WBC ace" would have meant Harvey was fronting a star-studded USA rotation, but in the year 2023, it means he will play for Italy and manager Mike Piazza in an attempt to revive his career. Harvey, 34 next month, spent the final two months of 2022 pitching competently for the Orioles' Triple-A affiliate. He is currently an unsigned free agent.
Harvey leads an Italy rotation that figures to include journeymen Ryan Castellani and Sam Gaviglio. It's entirely possible Harvey will pitch twice in the WBC even if Italy does not advance out of pool play. Here is Italy's first round schedule:
- March 9 vs. Cuba
- March 10 vs. Chinese Taipei
- March 11 vs. Panama
- March 12 vs. Netherlands
Harvey could start March 9 against Cuba and, as long as he throws fewer than 50 pitches, he could come back to pitch against the Netherlands three days later per the WBC pitch limit rules. Teams manage to the pitch limits! In 2017, China limited Bruce Chen to 49 pitches in his first start so he could pitch again later in the first round. Italy could do something similar with Harvey.
For my third bold prediction, I'll say Harvey pitches well enough in the WBC to earn a minor-league contract that allows him to go to Triple-A and keep his career going. His 60-game suspension for distribution of a banned substance has been served. Harvey is eligible to pitch immediately. As for the team, I'll say the Rockies sign him. Seems like a Rockies move, no?
Harvey would not be the first player to get a job out of the WBC. Peter Moylan was out of baseball and working as a pharmaceutical salesman in 2005, then pitched for Australia in the 2006 WBC, and stood out so much the Braves signed him to a minor-league contract. Moylan reached the big leagues that summer and pitched in the show until 2018. He used the WBC to revive his career and the bet here is Harvey, like Moylan, uses the tournament to get another opportunity.
(I could also do the "use the WBC to get a job" thing with Jurickson Profar, though he is definitely getting signed at some point. I'm not sure when or by which team or what kind of contract he'll get, but Profar will get signed eventually. Harvey on the other hand might be looking at a forced retirement.)
4. USA will be eliminated in the second round
Prior to winning the 2017 tournament, Team USA was known for underwhelming WBC performances. They were eliminated in the second round in 2006, finished in fourth place in 2009, and were eliminated in the second round again in 2013. The Netherlands has as many top-four WBC finishes as USA. Puerto Rico has more top-three finishes.
On paper, this year's USA roster is the best they've ever had in the WBC, at least on the position player side. The pitching is much less formidable, particularly with Clayton Kershaw (insurance issue) and Nestor Cortes (hamstring injury) having decommitted, and Adam Wainwright missing a lot of velocity and getting hit hard this spring.
USA's rotation will include some combination of Wainwright, Kyle Freeland, Lance Lynn, Merrill Kelly, Nick Martinez, Miles Mikolas, and Brady Singer. That's not a bad rotation by any means, though it certainly lacks star power. And perhaps that doesn't matter. The WBC pitch limits force teams to rely heavily on their bullpens anyway, and USA has a strong relief crew.
Still, I think USA is lacking on the mound relative to the other WBC powerhouses, enough that I'm not confident the offense can make up for it. For this bold prediction, I will say USA loses in the second round for the third time in five WBCs. They also did it in 2006 and 2013, so I guess this makes a second-round elimination an "every other WBC" thing for USA.
Team USA should have no trouble advancing out of pool play and into the second round. That single-elimination second round is where they'll run into an absurdly stacked Dominican Republic team and meet their end. The Dominican Republic can match USA's offensive firepower and I like their pitching a bit more. No back-to-back WBC titles for the US of A.
5. Japan will win the WBC ...
... and Shohei Ohtani will be named WBC MVP. Japan is the most accomplished team in WBC history, finishing top three in all four previous events and winning it twice (2006 and 2009). Their .742 winning percentage is second all-time in the WBC behind the Dominican Republic (.750), though Japan has nearly as many wins (23) as the Dominican Republic has games played (24) because they always make deep runs in the WBC.
The Dominican Republic has rightfully been praised for its insanely deep roster -- and it is deep -- but Japan's roster is excellent as well. MLB fans may not know many of Japan's players, but they will soon. The case can be made Japan has four of the six best starting pitchers in the WBC in Ohtani, Yu Darvish, and NPB stars Roki Sasaki and Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Mexico's Julio Urías and the Dominican Republic's Sandy Alcantara are the other two).
Even with Seiya Suzuki having to withdraw from the WBC with an oblique injury, Japan's lineup packs serious punch with 56-homer man Munetaka Murakami, new Red Sox outfielder Masataka Yoshida, three-time 40-homer guy Hotaka Yamakawa, and rising star Shugo Maki. Japan has talent and they take the WBC seriously. Their training and preparation began weeks ago.
As for Ohtani, is it really that bold to predict him winning WBC MVP? Not quite. He'll start at least twice should Japan advance to the Championship Game and the schedule would allow Ohtani to pitch three times, plus he'll be a regular in the lineup. I mean, the case can be made Ohtani is the best hitter and pitcher in the WBC. That's an easy recipe for MVP honors.
For my final bold prediction I'll say Japan beats the Dominican Republic in a heavyweight Championship Game and becomes the second team ever to run the table and go undefeated, joining the 2013 Dominican club. The 21-year-old Sasaki will come out of the bullpen to get the final outs of the Championship Game the way then-22-year-old Darvish did in the 2009 WBC. Ohtani will win twice on the mound and also club a single-WBC record five home runs en route to the MVP award.
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