ALBANY – Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo’s decision to resign will shift the political dynamic in New York and is expected to set up a spirited gubernatorial race next year with a Democratic party left reeling from the governor's tarnished legacy.
The sudden departure of Cuomo, who wielded incredible control over the state Democratic Party, will leave a void in that arena and a scramble to determine the party's direction.
Possible Democratic contenders for statewide office largely sidestepped questions about 2022 on Tuesday, instead releasing official statements addressing Cuomo’s departure, wishing luck to his successor, Lt. Gov. Kathleen Hochul, and praising the bravery of the women who came forward about Cuomo's alleged sexual harassment.
For Democrats that seek the governorship, there may be little appeal in running to the political center in a primary. Republicans haven’t won a statewide election since 2002.
“The winner of the Democratic primary in 2022 will be governor in 2023,” said Evan Stavisky, a Democratic political consultant. “New York is a fundamentally blue state, and it’s only gotten bluer as Donald Trump and Republicans have scared the living daylights out of everyone. In order to win the Republican primary in New York, Republican candidates will have to tack so far into Trump’s shadow, it will make them incapable of winning independents, let alone Democrats.”
Attorney General Letitia James, who would be a top Democratic contender if she runs, has carefully avoided discussion of a possible campaign, even as Cuomo has in recent weeks stated without proof that she has gubernatorial aspirations.
James was charged in March with appointing the independent investigators to examine the allegations against Cuomo, and last week she issued the scathing report that prefaced Cuomo’s resignation.
James is the first Black woman to serve as state attorney general, and besides the Cuomo investigations, received accolades from the political left due to her office’s investigations of Trump, as well as other conservative bogeymen, including the National Rifle Association. She was previously a citywide elected official in New York City as its public advocate. The last two Democrats elected governor, Cuomo and Eliot Spitzer, both ran for the higher office while serving as attorney general.
James’ office declined to answer questions about a possible gubernatorial campaign.
"I thank Gov. Cuomo for his contributions to our state," James said in a statement released by her government office. "The ascension of our lieutenant governor, Kathy Hochul, will help New York enter a new day."
Hochul, who is set to assume the governorship in two weeks, could also be a formidable candidate. Hochul has upstate roots – she was born in the city of Lackawanna in Erie County – and has long been a fixture in western New York’s politics. Hochul staged a surprise win in a four-way special election for Congress in 2011, becoming the first Democrat to hold the seat in four decades.
That moderate appeal could also also be detrimental to a run for governor. She accepted the backing of the NRA while seeking reelection in the conservative congressional district in 2012. The NRA has since come out strongly opposing her.
Hochul has recently sought to distance herself from Cuomo, who is still under investigation by the Assembly's Judiciary Committee, the Albany County Sheriff's Department and the U.S. attorney's office in Brooklyn.
A Democratic primary could be shaped by what happens next with those ongoing investigations, and the degree to which Hochul seeks to break from administration practices that have brought intense recent criticism.
The investigations, which have triggered seven state contracts for legal counsel both to defend and investigate Cuomo, are valued at $10.3 million — a figure that will shift depending on the length of the services, according to the state comptroller's office. An eight contract, which has not been forwarded to the comptroller's office, is for a Washington, D.C. law firm representing the Executive Chamber.
On Tuesday, some Democrats called for continuing either impeachment proceedings or the investigation, which could factor into the political dynamics of a 2022 bid for any particular candidate. Republicans and some progressive Democrats have called for continuing the investigations of Cuomo.
Cuomo had $18.3 million in his campaign account at the end of June, and that money can be used for his legal defense in the aforementioned investigations.
Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli, who has served in the position since 2007, is well-liked and has earned respect across the aisle for a diligent if quiet approach. But it’s unclear if he’d want to engage in a contentious Democratic primary.
“The comptroller is very happy being comptroller, and he is running for re-election,” said campaign spokesman Doug Forand. “Obviously, as a statewide elected Democrat who has been consistently re-elected with very strong numbers, he has had a number of leaders approach him about running for governor but Comptroller DiNapoli views continuing is his current position as the best way to serve the people of New York state at this point."
Others mentioned as possible candidates for governor include two members of Congress from Long Island – U.S. Reps. Thomas Suozzi and Kathleen Rice – Bronx state Sen. Alessandra Biaggi, former New York City Sanitation Commissioner Kathryn Garcia and Suffolk County Executive Steve Bellone.
A source close to Bellone said he is "strongly considering getting into the race for governor." He raised $1 million in campaign funds the last six months and has retained a prominent fundraising consultant, Annie Weir, who previously worked for Hillary Clinton.
New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams has hinted at a run, and narrowly lost a contested 2018 race for lieutenant governor against Hochul. Williams said on Tuesday that he and Hochul have "disagreed in the past about the direction of our state and its leadership," but he hopes she can "stabilize New York in a perilous moment."
New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio last week left open the door to a run for governor, saying he hasn't "ruled in or ruled out anything." Polling indicates de Blasio is not especially popular after nearly eight years as mayor.
The current leading Republican candidate for governor, U.S. Rep. Lee Zeldin of Long Island, said that Cuomo's statements on Tuesday were a "clear indication he is resigning to skirt all repercussions for his actions as opposed to accounting for his misconduct." Zeldin called for a clean-sweep of the governor's office, and attempted to tie Hochul to Cuomo, although the two rarely spoke in recent months.
If James runs for governor, that would also create a Democratic primary for the powerful position of attorney general.
Rice, who nearly won a Democratic primary for attorney general in 2010, would be a strong candidate for that seat. Another strong possible contender would be Queens state Sen. Michael Gianaris, who has expressed interest in the post in the past, including when the position was open in 2018. A formidable campaign fundraiser, Gianaris currently has $7.1 million in his campaign account.
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