Miller departs Afghanistan as the war’s longest-serving senior U.S. officer. A former commander of the elite Delta Force, he oversaw a tumultuous period that included the Trump administration’s 2020 deal with the Taliban that set the stage for withdrawal, and the final call by Biden in April to remove all troops.
Marine Gen. Kenneth “Frank” McKenzie, the chief of U.S. Central Command, arrived Monday morning in Kabul to assume command of the remaining mission. He is expected to oversee the small-scale operation from his headquarters in Tampa, with a two-star Navy SEAL, Rear Adm. Peter Vasely, leading about 650 troops tasked with protecting the U.S. Embassy.
McKenzie told reporters traveling with him that he believes the Taliban is pursuing a “military victory” over the Afghan government, citing its recent battlefield victories in numerous parts of the country and the threat it poses to several provincial capitals. But he predicted the militants will encounter significant resistance in Kabul, noting how much larger and more complex the city of 6 million people and its defenses are now than when the Taliban ruled it in the 1990s.
“I think, certainly, the provincial capitals are at risk, and we’ll see how that shakes out over the next few weeks,” McKenzie said, speaking aboard a military aircraft over the Atlantic Ocean. “I think the Afghans are determined to fight very hard for those provincial capitals.”
McKenzie assessed that the Taliban is pursuing a “multipronged approach” in asserting power. If it cannot topple the central government, the general said, it is likely to “go wherever there is the least resistance” and consider a political settlement with senior Afghan officials.
McKenzie said he does not place any “undue regard” on Monday’s ceremony. He called his visit to Afghanistan a symbol that the United States will continue to support the Afghan government financially and with technical assistance from afar.
Still, the general acknowledged, the end of the military’s mission here marks a significant change in the U.S. relationship with Afghanistan.
“It won’t be done like it was done in the past, and we need to be very clear about that,” McKenzie said.
The rapid disintegration of security amid the withdrawal has put Biden on the defensive. Last week, he said in remarks at the White House that he and his advisers anticipated problems but that focusing on them has been used for years as a rationale to extend the military mission while U.S. troops remained in harm’s way.
“Let me ask: How many more — how many thousands more Americans, daughters and sons — are you willing to risk?” Biden said. “I will not send another generation of Americans to war in Afghanistan with no reasonable expectation of achieving a different outcome.”
Biden said a Taliban takeover of Afghanistan was “not inevitable,” however.
Numerous unresolved questions about the withdrawal have not been fully addressed yet. They include a promise to evacuate thousands of interpreters who worked alongside U.S. troops and are fearful of being targeted by the Taliban.
The Biden administration also plans to continue carrying out airstrikes against the Islamic State and al-Qaeda in Afghanistan as needed. However, without access to bases there, the military is expected to fly from installations hours away in the Persian Gulf, putting strains and limits on what U.S. troops can do. Administration officials are seeking new agreements with neighboring countries from which to carry out the strikes, but to date no deals have been announced.
The military’s departure from Afghanistan, along with the deterioration of security throughout the country, also is expected to degrade the United States’ ability to monitor events on the ground.
McKenzie said that most of the information the U.S. military gets about the Taliban comes from Afghan forces, and that in areas where the Taliban has seized control, it will be more difficult to understand changes as they occur.
“That’s just a fact we’re going to have to recognize,” McKenzie said. “My knowledge of what’s going on in Afghanistan is not nearly what it was 180 days ago.”
The costs of the war, launched in the aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, have been staggering. About 2,400 U.S. troops have been killed in Afghanistan, with an additional 20,000 wounded, according to Pentagon statistics. Nearly 800,000 service members have rotated through Afghanistan on assignment at least once, with nearly 30,000 of them deploying at least five times each, according to Pentagon data provided by The Washington Post.
Some 47,245 civilians, 66,000 Afghan soldiers and police, and 51,000 opposition fighters also have been killed, according to a study released by Brown University this year.
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