Following a landmark ruling by the German Constitutional Court, the country's lawmakers decided in 2021 to strengthen the Climate Action Law and to align it with the new EU targets – less than two years after it first entered into force. The reform makes the government's decision to bring forward the target date for climate neutrality to 2045 legally binding and introduces stricter greenhouse gas reduction targets on the way. It raised the 2030 target for emission cuts to 65 from 55 percent.
Any change to Germany’s national climate targets as well as its international obligations under the new EU proposal means that countless assumptions and estimates have to be reviewed in order to adjust the sector emission budgets and power consumption estimates to the new goals.
Only one day before the European Commission published the “Fit for 55” package, Germany’s federal energy ministry presented a new estimate of the country’s 2030 power needs. Taking into account the higher power consumption of the increased numbers of e-cars (14 million), heat pumps (6 million) and more hydrogen (electrolyser) capacity, the ministry raised the power use forecast by 13 percent compared to the previous figures.
Germany’s recent climate law reform could soon be outdated when new EU rules are decided. The country’s climate targets derive from the European Union's greenhouse gas emission reduction plans. The EU’s plans are currently governed by the Union-wide Emissions Trading System for the energy and industry sectors, and by national goals of the effort sharing scheme, for example in transport, buildings and agriculture. Both systems would remain in place under the Commission’s new proposals, but a reform and additional instruments mean more ambitious targets.
In the Commission’s proposal for member states’ contributions to the EU’s overall emission reduction target, Germany has an obligation to reduce emissions by 50 percent by 2030 in the non-ETS sectors. According to Andreas Graf (via Twitter), an analyst at Agora Energiewende, this is “higher than the emissions reductions modelled in a recent study on how Germany could become climate-neutral ,” using very similar assumptions for e-cars and heat pumps as the energy ministry for its new power consumption estimate.
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July 16, 2021 at 04:12PM
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New EU climate proposals to accelerate German coal exit and industry transformation – think tanks - Clean Energy Wire
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