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With Connor O’Brien
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Quick Fix
— The withdrawal from Afghanistan has begun, but serious questions remain about how violent it will be and the fate of private contractors there.
— Congress dives into the Navy and Coast Guard’s budgets and readiness challenges this week in oversight hearings.
— U.S. relations with its NATO ally Turkey just got much worse with President Joe Biden’s Armenian genocide declaration.
HAPPY MONDAY AND WELCOME BACK TO MORNING DEFENSE, where we're always on the lookout for tips, pitches and feedback. Email us at [email protected], and follow on Twitter @bryandbender, @morningdefense and @politicopro.
On the Hill
SENATE WEIGHS POLICY PICK: Colin Kahl, Biden's choice for the Pentagon's top policy post, could be on the job before the end of the week after a series of procedural votes to cut off debate in the coming days.
If he gets confirmed, it will very likely be the tightest vote for a Biden nominee thus far. The Senate voted along party lines last week to consider Kahl's nomination after he deadlocked in the Senate Armed Services Committee. Vice President Kamala Harris had to break the 50-50 tie and she will likely be needed again to get Kahl over the finish line.
BUDGET HEARINGS: Biden’s forthcoming defense budget request is front and center this week for congressional oversight committees:
On Tuesday, the Senate Defense Appropriations Subcommittee plans a closed hearing with Missile Defense Agency director Vice Adm. Jon Hill at 10 a.m.
On Wednesday, the House Armed Services Committee holds a hearing with top Pentagon officials on DoD’s financial improvement and audit readiness plan at 11 a.m.
Also, the House Appropriations Homeland Security panel holds a hearing on Coast Guard readiness with Commandant Adm. Karl Schultz at 10 a.m.
On Thursday, the House Defense Appropriations Subcommittee holds a budget hearing with acting Navy Secretary Thomas Harker, Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Mike Gilday, and Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger at 11 a.m.
ICYMI: “An Analysis of the Navy’s December 2020 Shipbuilding Plan,” via the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.
Happening This Week
On Tuesday, the American Enterprise Institute hosts a discussion with Gen. Frank McKenzie, head of U.S. Central Command, at 1 p.m.
The Center for a New American Security convenes a panel of top leaders to discuss the Army’s strategic priorities at 1 p.m.
And the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments holds a webinar with CNO Gilday at 2 p.m.
On Wednesday, Fedscoop kicks off its two-day IT Modernization Summit featuring military leaders at 10 a.m.
The Institute for Defense and Government Advancements kicks off the three-day Hypersonic Weapons Summit, featuring Mike White, the Pentagon’s director for hypersonics, at 11 a.m.
The Air Force Association hosts an event with Lt. Gen. David Krumm, head of Alaskan Command, at 1:15 p.m.
The Air Force Research Laboratory hosts a discussion with Space Force chief scientist Joel Mozer at 2 p.m.
And the OSS Society holds a book talk with retired Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Norton Schwartz and Capt. John Billings on “Special Duties Pilot: The Man Who Flew the Real 'Inglorious Bastards' Behind Enemy Lines” at 6 p.m.
On Thursday, the Atlantic Council holds an event on “Russian influence in the Mediterranean” with Laura Cooper, deputy assistant secretary of defense for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia, and Christopher Bort, national intelligence officer for Russia and Eurasia at the National Intelligence Council at 9 a.m.
On Friday, the Aspen Institute Forum’s “The Biden Administration's First 100 Days in Review” features Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks at 10:30 a.m.
For a full schedule of events check out the Pro calendar.
Afghanistan
MORE BEFORE LESS: The military is temporarily boosting its presence in the region as a hedge against renewed hostilities while it prepares to withdraw from Afghanistan, the Pentagon announced Friday, our colleague Lara Seligman reports for Pros.
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has approved the deployment of B-52 bombers and will keep the aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower in the Persian Gulf. "It would be foolhardy and imprudent not to assume that there could be resistance and opposition from the Taliban," Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby told reporters Friday. "We're going to make this a safe, orderly, deliberate, and responsible" withdrawal.
Kirby also said it's possible Austin will dispatch additional ground forces to Afghanistan for logistical support and force protection.
The top U.S. commander in Afghanistan reported Sunday the withdrawal is already underway in some local districts, where American and NATO troops are beginning to hand over bases to Afghan security forces, CNN reported.
Gen. Austin Scott Miller also had a warning: "If the Taliban attack, U.S. or any coalition forces, we will have a forceful response if our forces are attacked."
Deep uncertainty also remains for the numerous private contractors who have been supporting the U.S. military in Afghanistan, Bloomberg Law reported.
“We need a much clearer idea of what the endgame looks like,” said David Berteau, president of the Professional Services Council. “None of that has been revealed to us or our member companies and that is what we’re calling for.”
Related: We got Afghanistan wrong, but there’s still time to learn something, via POLITICO Magazine.
And: Afghan ambassador: ‘The ball is in the Taliban’s court,’ via Foreign Policy.
Also: Into thin air: Aviation security force assistance in Iraq and Afghanistan, via War on the Rocks.
Pentagon
STAFFING UP: The White House on Friday announced four new Pentagon nominees, our colleague Connor O’Brien reports for Pros:
Christopher Maier, who served as director of the Pentagon's Defeat ISIS Task Force from 2017 to 2020, was chosen to be assistant secretary of defense for special operations and low intensity conflict.
Shawn Skelly, a retired Navy commander and aviator, was tapped to be assistant secretary of defense for readiness. If confirmed, Skelly would be the highest ranking openly transgender Pentagon official, as The Washington Post reports.
Brenda Sue Fulton, a retired Army captain who graduated in the first West Point class to admit women, is being nominated as assistant secretary of defense for manpower and reserve affairs.
Deborah Rosenblum, executive vice president of the Nuclear Threat Initiative, a nonprofit organization, has been selected to be assistant secretary of defense for nuclear, chemical and biological defense.
Biden also named a slew of State Department nominees, including Jessica Lewis, who was national security adviser to former Sen. Harry Reid, to be assistant secretary of state in the Bureau of Political-Military Affairs, which is the gatekeeper for arms sales, Defense News reports.
White House
DOING THE RIGHT THING, FINALLY: Words matter and a searing example came Saturday when Biden did what other presidents refused to do for more than a century: declare the 1915 massacre of 1.5 million Armenians by Ottoman Turks to have been genocide, POLITICO’s Benjamin Din reports.
Sen. Jack Reed, chair of the Armed Services Committee, said “official recognition of the Armenian genocide at the highest levels of American government is long overdue and a victory for truth and justice. Rather than be a bystander to the denial of genocide, President Biden’s official action today helps restore America’s moral credibility.”
Why did it take so long? Veteran diplomat Daniel Fried explains in POLITICO Magazine the two driving factors: fear of rupturing the security relationship with Turkey, a NATO ally, and “wishful thinking” that Turkey on its own would “come out of its shell of historical denial and hostility to Armenia.”
The declaration immediately opened a new rift with Ankara, which is already under U.S. sanctions for acquiring a Russian-made air defense system, kicked out of the F-35 fighter jet program, and has increasingly alienated allies with its democratic crackdowns in recent years. (Soner Cagaptay, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, argued Saturday that Ankara has so damaged its relationship with Washington that it forced Biden’s hand.)
In response, the Turkish Foreign Ministry summoned the U.S. ambassador and charged in a lengthy statement that the declaration “distorts the historical facts” and it “will never be accepted in the conscience of the Turkish people, and will open a deep wound that undermines our mutual trust and friendship. It also called on Biden, who spoke with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Saturday, “to correct this grave mistake.”
Related: 'Of course it’s genocide': How Biden fulfilled a promise to Armenians that Obama wouldn’t, via POLITICO’s Natasha Korecki.
And: Why Biden’s Armenian genocide declaration really is a big deal, via POLITICO’s Charlie Mahtesian.
Industry Intel
Q1 EARNINGS CONTINUE: Four of the top five defense contractors will release their first quarter earnings this week: Tuesday, Raytheon Technologies; Wednesday, Boeing and General Dynamics; and Thursday, Northrop Grumman.
‘EXACTLY WHERE DOLLARS SHOULD BE INVESTED’: The National Defense Industrial Association last week launched the Emerging Technologies Institute, “a non-partisan organization dedicated to research, analysis and open discussion about emerging technologies and their role in the defense industrial base,” according to executive director Mark Lewis, the Pentagon’s former director of defense research and engineering who also served as acting undersecretary of defense for research and engineering last year.
The industry-backed outfit plans to issue reports and hold events and will feature a regular podcast and monthly column by Lewis. “We won’t just be advocating for more spending on research and engineering,” he wrote in National Defense magazine last week, “but rather will be providing advice and commentary on exactly where dollars should be invested to have the greatest impact, as well as sponsoring early career scholars so that we can help build a cadre of future thought leaders.”
Speed Read
— HASC chair calls for new incentives to reduce defense costs: Federal Computer Week
— Why Biden White House lifted arms sales freeze on UAE and Saudi Arabia: Breaking Defense
— Make or break time for the F-35: Air Force Magazine
— Turkey’s removal from F-35 program to cause hike in engine price: Defense News
— Minutes before Trump left office, millions of the Pentagon’s dormant IP addresses sprang to life: The Washington Post
— California Guard members feared fighter jet would be ordered to frighten protesters: The Los Angeles
— George W. Bush says he wrote-in Condoleezza Rice in 2020 election: People
— ‘Reckless’ Russia’s power is in decline, says British spy chief: POLITICO
— Russia says it has begun pulling out troops from Crimea after drills: Reuters
— Indonesia finds missing submarine cracked, military says crew is dead: The Wall Street Journal
— Israel’s defense chief to make first U.S. visit this week: The Times of Israel
— Biden must press Armenia to hand over minefield maps: Defense One
— BOOK REVIEW: “The Bomber Mafia: A Dream, a Temptation, and the Longest Night of the Second World War”: The Washington Post
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