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Today we have another installment of Your Lead, where we answer readers’ questions about how the pandemic is changing daily life in California. Submit your questions here.
Analise Yaldoo, a reader in San Diego, asked: “How come bars, restaurants, etc. are allowed to open but not my college campus? I understand the health risk, but why are schools not a priority in being reopened?”
Ms. Yaldoo, who attends San Diego State University, says that her online classes are not a replacement for the real thing. “I see everyone out and about at beaches and bars and gyms and malls yet I am being denied my college experience,” she wrote last month.
Virtual learning has allowed classes to continue throughout the pandemic, but critics of online classrooms say that the format is hard on educators and students, especially those who come from low-income households and for students with special needs.
And proponents of returning to school point to promising evidence that children affected with Covid-19 generally fare better than adults. One South Korean study found that children younger than 10 transmit the virus to others much less often than adults do. However, the same study also found that those between the ages of 10 and 19 can spread the virus at least as well as adults.
Some countries have successfully reopened schools, but as my colleagues reported, no nation has begun sending children back to school with infection rates like the ones currently in the United States.
I asked Brad Pollock, who has a Ph.D. in epidemiology and is the associate dean for public health sciences at the University of California, Davis, School of Medicine, about why schools in California will remain closed. As chair of the University of California’s Public Health Covid-19 Working Group, he has been tracking the pandemic since early March.
“It’s a very complex situation,” Dr. Pollock said.
Why schools have not reopened
California’s case count has skyrocketed in recent weeks, and on Wednesday it passed another grim milestone. With more than 422,000 cases, California has more coronavirus cases than any other state, according to The New York Times’s database. California also broke its single-day record on Wednesday, with more than 12,100 new cases announced.
[See The Times’s map tracking coronavirus cases across the state.]
As my colleague Jill Cowan reported last week, Gov. Gavin Newsom announced new rules that would force many of the state’s districts to teach remotely when school starts next month. More than 80 percent of the state’s population lives in counties that would currently not qualify for schools to reopen based on their surging caseloads and hospitalization rates.
“We all prefer in-classroom instruction for all the obvious reasons,” Mr. Newsom said, “but only if it can be done safely.”
California’s two largest school districts, Los Angeles and San Diego, said they would start the year remotely and the California State University chancellor, Timothy White, said that remote learning at the universities in the system could be extended throughout the academic year.
[Read the full story on the state’s reopening plan.]
When will it be safe for schools to reopen?
The statewide rules announced last week would require schools in counties that have been put on a “watch list” — based on indicators that include new infections per capita, the test positivity rate and the hospitalization rate — to teach online until conditions improve. Currently, 33 of the state’s 58 counties, where more than 80 percent of the state’s population lives, are on the list.
Counties would have to be off the list for at least two weeks before their classrooms would be allowed to reopen, but the decision would still be up to local officials on whether to resume in-person classes, the governor said.
Given the rising number of infections in California, only a safe and effective vaccine that is distributed enough to drive up the effects of herd immunity will make it safe for children and teachers to return to classrooms, according to Dr. Pollock.
“Vaccination is really the way out of this,” he said. “You’re not going to have enough herd immunity in the population at the current infection rates, even if they increase. We’ll have a vaccine long before the number of infected individuals survive and develop natural immunity.”
Even with vaccinations in place, Dr. Pollock thinks that safety precautions, like practicing social distancing and using personal protective equipment, will still probably have to be in place in schools.
The Coronavirus Outbreak ›
Frequently Asked Questions
Updated July 23, 2020
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What is school going to look like in September?
- It is unlikely that many schools will return to a normal schedule this fall, requiring the grind of online learning, makeshift child care and stunted workdays to continue. California’s two largest public school districts — Los Angeles and San Diego — said on July 13, that instruction will be remote-only in the fall, citing concerns that surging coronavirus infections in their areas pose too dire a risk for students and teachers. Together, the two districts enroll some 825,000 students. They are the largest in the country so far to abandon plans for even a partial physical return to classrooms when they reopen in August. For other districts, the solution won’t be an all-or-nothing approach. Many systems, including the nation’s largest, New York City, are devising hybrid plans that involve spending some days in classrooms and other days online. There’s no national policy on this yet, so check with your municipal school system regularly to see what is happening in your community.
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Is the coronavirus airborne?
- The coronavirus can stay aloft for hours in tiny droplets in stagnant air, infecting people as they inhale, mounting scientific evidence suggests. This risk is highest in crowded indoor spaces with poor ventilation, and may help explain super-spreading events reported in meatpacking plants, churches and restaurants. It’s unclear how often the virus is spread via these tiny droplets, or aerosols, compared with larger droplets that are expelled when a sick person coughs or sneezes, or transmitted through contact with contaminated surfaces, said Linsey Marr, an aerosol expert at Virginia Tech. Aerosols are released even when a person without symptoms exhales, talks or sings, according to Dr. Marr and more than 200 other experts, who have outlined the evidence in an open letter to the World Health Organization.
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What are the symptoms of coronavirus?
- Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
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What’s the best material for a mask?
- Scientists around the country have tried to identify everyday materials that do a good job of filtering microscopic particles. In recent tests, HEPA furnace filters scored high, as did vacuum cleaner bags, fabric similar to flannel pajamas and those of 600-count pillowcases. Other materials tested included layered coffee filters and scarves and bandannas. These scored lower, but still captured a small percentage of particles.
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Does asymptomatic transmission of Covid-19 happen?
- So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement.
So, until then, virtual learning?
Some parents, despondent over having to endure additional months of online learning with their children, are scrambling to put together home-schooling pods and microschools.
For universities, however, the pandemic has accelerated the use of virtual classrooms, and the introduction of new technology will leave a lasting impact on college classrooms, according to some experts.
Dr. Pollock said he imagined that, after the pandemic, his faculty at U.C. Davis may carry these virtual lessons forward in some way, either in a hybrid learning model or to make classes more accessible to students.
After a successful quarter teaching entirely online, he sees proof in the concept. “Somebody told me that this couldn’t be done,” he said. “Well, you know, I guess it could be done because we did it.”
Here’s what else we’re following
We often link to sites that limit access for nonsubscribers. We appreciate your reading Times coverage, but we also encourage you to support local news if you can.
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The Mineral Fire, the largest wildfire in California so far this year, is nearly extinguished after blowing smoke into the Bay Area for much of this past week. [The Mercury News]
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Car thefts in Los Angeles soared to record highs in 2020. The spike coincides with the arrival of the pandemic. [Crosstown]
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After nearly 100 workers tested positive for the coronavirus, employees of the Primex pistachio plant are calling for the California attorney general to investigate the company. [CalMatters]
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The Los Angeles Police Department chief, Michel Moore, told units to “Show your relevance” and promised changes to the department after experiencing a historic $150 million budget cut. [Los Angeles Times]
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Tesla reported a profit of $104 million, a result that surprised analysts, who were expecting the electric carmaker to lose money. For nearly two months, the company was forced to halt production at its main plant in Fremont. [The New York Times]
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Anti-Asian and anti-Black racial housing covenants can still be found in the Bay Area. [San Francisco Chronicle]
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For the first time in its 50-year history, San Diego Comic-Con is happening as a virtual, streaming event. Comic-Con@Home will feature over 350 panels and interviews and includes an online exhibition hall and museum. [Variety]
California Today goes live at 6:30 a.m. Pacific time weekdays. Tell us what you want to see: CAtoday@nytimes.com. Were you forwarded this email? Sign up for California Today here and read every edition online here.
Jill Cowan grew up in Orange County, went to school at U.C. Berkeley and has reported all over the state, including the Bay Area, Bakersfield and Los Angeles — but she always wants to see more. Follow along here or on Twitter.
California Today is edited by Julie Bloom, who grew up in Los Angeles and graduated from U.C. Berkeley.
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