Paris Agreement exit risks reputation of US businesses, economists warn - GreenBiz

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The United States risks drastically diminishing its economic prospects and political influence on the world stage should it exit the Paris Agreement as planned in November, a group of top U.S. and U.K. economists have warned, claiming such a move would damage the reputation of American businesses.

With the White House having officially initiated the process of withdrawing from the global climate accord last year, the final exit date stands less than three months away on Nov. 4, just a day after Americans head to the polls for the 2020 Presidential election.

The election is seen as monumentally important from a climate change perspective, with the Democrats and Republicans taking diametrically opposed stances on the issue, leaving the U.S.'s future participation in the Paris Agreement hanging in the balance.

Should Donald Trump secure a second four-year term in the election, he is set to press ahead with both the U.S.'s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and his ongoing efforts to unpick decades' worth of environmental protection regulations aimed at safeguarding clean air, water and land. Experts have warned a Trump victory also would further embolden other critics of the Paris Accord, such as Brazilian President Jair Bolsanaro, potentially undermining the credibility of the entire treaty.

The election is seen as monumentally important from a climate change perspective, with the Democrats and Republicans taking diametrically opposed stances on the issue.

The race for the White House remains tight, however, and Trump's opponent Joe Biden has said he will ensure the U.S. re-commits to the global climate agreement at the earliest opportunity should he win the election, while also setting the country on a path to net zero emissions by 2050.

Last week, with both the presidential election and Paris Agreement withdrawal dates looming, top U.S. and U.K. experts from the London School of Economics (LSE) and Imperial College London have published a joint paper setting out the economic case for the world's biggest economy remaining committed to the climate accord.

It slams the Trump administration's "irrational" decision to exit the Paris Agreement, and argues long-term U.S. interests are best served by continuing to participate in global diplomatic efforts to combat climate change.

"The arguments put forward by the Trump administration to try to justify withdrawal are inaccurate and misleading," the briefing states. "Essentially, the Trump administration has ceded control over the future economic impacts of climate change on the United States to its trading partners and competitors."

The briefing was jointly authored by U.K. and U.S. experts from the two universities, including Alex Bowen, Marshall Burke, Charles Donovan, Frances Moore, Kenneth Gillingham, Robert Stavins, Gernot Wagner and Bob Ward.

It points out the U.S. government has yet to publish a full analysis of the economic implications of implementing its nationally determined contribution (NDC) climate action plan, submitted by the Obama administration as part of the Paris Agreement.

Under its NDC to the climate accord, the U.S. has pledged to reduce its annual greenhouse gas emissions by 26 to 28 percent by 2025 compared to 2005 levels. The paper argues that despite opposition to clean energy and climate action from the Trump administration, the existing NDC targets still could be achieved if the White House stepped up its climate policy efforts. It predicts that achieving the U.S.'s Paris Agreement obligations likely would offer net benefits for the U.S. economy, particularly when taking into account the public health benefits from better air quality as a result of reduced reliance on burning fossil fuels to produce energy.

The international isolation of the United States on climate change could also create wider damage to its diplomatic relationships at a time when it is seeking support from other countries on issues such as trade and defense.

Crucially, too, the U.S. could suffer reduced socio-economic and political influence with other countries worldwide should it withdraw from the accord, damaging the international prospects for American businesses in the process, according to the briefing.

"The international isolation of the United States on climate change, with its absence from relevant discussions at G7 and G20 summits for example, could also create wider damage to its diplomatic relationships at a time when it is seeking support from other countries on issues such as trade and defense," it states. "And the lack of engagement by the federal government also adversely affects the reputation of businesses in the United States that could export zero-carbon goods and services around the world."

U.S. corporates traditionally have been loath to involve themselves too explicitly in electoral politics and the assumption remains that the business community remains broadly supportive of Trump's low tax, deregulatory agenda. But with many of the biggest names in corporate America publicly and vocally committed to the Paris Agreement and its goals, a sizable and influential contingent of business leaders will hope for a clear Biden victory and a return to the U.S. playing a leading role in driving climate action around the world.

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Paris Agreement exit risks reputation of US businesses, economists warn - GreenBiz
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