The projection by the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation comes with a silver lining: About 70,000 of those lives would be saved if many more Americans wore masks, the institute's leader said.
"It really depends on what our leaders do, (both) as individuals, and what governments do," the IHME's chief, Dr. Chris Murray, told CNN's Anderson Cooper on Friday night.
At least 175,416 people have died of Covid-19 in the US since the pandemic began. The institute projected that if nothing about the nation's approach to prevention changed, death rates would dip in September but rise later in the fall, and the total would reach about 310,000 by December 1.
But changes in behavior would affect the projection, he said:
• If governments ease current social distancing restrictions and mask mandates, daily death rates could reach 6,000 daily by December, up from his current prediction of 2,000 daily, Murray said.
• On the other hand, if significantly more people wore masks, the projection of total deaths from now to December would drop by almost 70,000, he said. About 95% of the US population would have to wear masks for that to happen, he said.
Coronavirus case rates have been dropping for weeks in parts of the US, but death rates have been relatively elevated.
The country's seven-day average for daily coronavirus deaths was 987 on Friday -- the first time in more than three weeks that it dipped below 1,000, according to Johns Hopkins University data.
Daily US cases over the past week averaged about 44,100 as of Friday, down from a peak average of 67,317 on July 22, John Hopkins data show.
US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Dr. Robert Redfield said earlier this week he expects deaths to begin declining by next week as a result of continued mitigation measures.
Preventing another wave
The CDC director expressed concern that while parts of the country are reporting improvement in new cases, states in middle America like Nebraska and Oklahoma seem to be "stuck" and cases aren't falling.
"We don't need to have a third wave in the heartland right now," Redfield said Thursday. "We need to prevent that."
Getting safety measures in place now is crucial, Murray said, before fall rolls around, when health officials have predicted the US will see a resurgence of coronavirus cases on top of flu season. Redfield has previously said this fall and winter are likely to be one of the "most difficult times" in American public health.
On Friday, the top health official for Seattle and King County in Washington warned the state was seeing an increased number of cases linked to social gatherings.
"We expect Covid-19 to get worse in the fall and winter and people to spend more time indoors," health officer Dr. Jeffrey Duchin said.
To help prevent widespread infections, Murray said governors need to put mask mandates in place -- mandates "with teeth," that would allow local authorities to fine residents without a face covering.
"It will take a concerted effort but the impact is extraordinary, it's really quite extraordinary what it could achieve," Murray said.
6-year-old is Florida's youngest Covid-19 victim
In Florida, a 6-year-old girl became the youngest person in the state to die from coronavirus complications. Health officials say they still don't know if the child contracted the virus from a known case or if this was travel related.
The report of her death comes just weeks after 9-year-old Kimora "Kimmie" Lynum, who had no known underlying health conditions, died from coronavirus complications in Florida.
Florida has reported more than 593,000 infections since the start of the pandemic, second only to California, which has recorded 660,000 positive results.
The girl's death comes as schools across the US have begun reopening. Some have adjusted plans after hundreds of students and staff were asked to quarantine in response to coronavirus cases.
A Florida judge is expected to rule next week on whether schools should reopen with in-person classes. That stems from a lawsuit filed by a Florida teacher's union, which wants to stop the state from requiring schools to reopen for in-person instruction five days a week.
Across the country, students have also made their way back to college campuses. Despite safety measures in place, universities in at least 15 states have reported coronavirus cases, many of which trace to gatherings or athletics. Many institutions have already announced they'll begin the semester remotely.
More than two dozen cases linked to motorcycle rally
Meanwhile, more than two dozen cases of the virus across three states are now being linked back to the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally, an annual gathering that usually draws in about half a million people.
Minnesota reported 15 cases of the virus among people who attended the rally in South Dakota earlier this month, Kris Ehresmann, the Minnesota Department of Health Infectious Disease Director, said Friday.
Among those cases, one person was hospitalized. Officials say they expect more cases over the next few days.
In Nebraska's Panhandle region, at least seven cases were tied to the rally according to Kim Engel, the director of the Panhandle Public Health District told CNN.
And earlier this week, South Dakota officials announced a person who worked at a tattoo shop in Sturgis tested positive for the virus and could have exposed others during the event. Officials also said a person who spent hours at a bar during the rally also tested positive.
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